There's no definitive answer on that AFAIK... one thing you didn't cite was how often you clean your chain and I believe that does more to promote long life than anything else. Your riding style factors in as well (clutch up wheelies vs. LD touring) and the type of lube will vary the life span. Another thing is riding weather... if you ride in the rain a lot and don't immediately lube the chain afterward you're risking the dreaded red dust.
With that typed... I got 47,000 miles (not km's) out of my OEM chain and (
Still For Sale )
sprockets. I am very diligent about chain maintenance. I used 80-90w gear oil roughly every tank of fuel... and a loob-man on long trips... cleaned with kerosene every 1,000 miles... and kept the chain on the loose side of the spec. I rarely ride in the rain unless I just happen to get caught in it - when I do the minimum is a shot of WD-40 to displace any moisture. Let's leave the WD-40 controversy out for now...
IMHO, the biggest enemy to long chain life is dirt. Using a "non-fling" lube is the worst thing you can do as dirt sticks to it and makes an abrasive paste that just grinds the chain components to an early grave. The next worst thing is leaving this crud rouge in place for thousands of miles. The gear oil does fling but that action carries away some of the crud.... and what does fling is easily wiped with a paper towel - the "non-fling" lubes can hardly be removed with kerosene.
I have now switched to automatic transmission fluid in the loob-man and it seems to work really good at keeping thing clean and lubed. During my normal 1,000 mile cleaning session there's hardly any grit or dirt in the pan when washing with kerosene. I only have about 11,000 miles on this new chain but it's never been adjusted beyond the first 500 miles so I don't know if I just got lucky with the OEM chain or my efforts are truly the key to long chain life.
On the other end of the spectrum... I know some people never clean and rarely lube the chain and they get 10,000 miles without much problem. I suspect they find it easier to change it out rather than fuss with regular maintenance... I'm just too frugal for that. (Nice way of saying cheap...
)
Hope this helps.